Wednesday, January 14, 2026

Ethiopia 2026 Outlook from Heleanna Georgalis

L: Cher Denny, Blueprint Coffee; R: Heleanna Georgalis
Artisan Coffee Imports is honored to have partnered for 3 years now with Moplaco Trading Co. and its
owner / CEO, Heleanna Georgalis. Heleanna is the second generation owner of MOPLACO and the fourth generation in her family to make a livelihood in coffee. Through hard work and passion for people and coffee, Heleanna has built a reputation of quality and coffee expertise for both the MOPLACO team and herself. 

MOPLACO Trading Co. is short for "Mocca Plantation Company", which makes sense since the company started in 1972 with 1000 ha of land in the heart of the Harrar region of Ethiopia, and Harrar coffee is known for its distinguished Mocca flavor. 

I've come to treasure the annual email Heleanna shares with her customers near the start of our calendar year and at the Ethiopian Christmas-time. I'm grateful that this year Heleanna is allowing me to share her thoughts with Artisan's blog readers via this blogpost. Enjoy!

Jan. 6, 2026
2025 is way behind us in terms of crop and 2026 has soon fully arrived. The past 2 years have been particularly challenging for all of us I believe. Ethiopia, for the first time, achieved a staggering 2.65 billion USD of coffee exports, exporting more than 470T tonnes of coffee, (that is 11 million bags). Ethiopia was known for exporting maximum 6 Million bags, but given the favorable prices, it showed its real potential for export. People are wondering how we could achieve these levels of production but the reality is, that our production has been growing steadily every year but most importantly given the high prices even the dirtiest coffee was exported instead of being consumed locally.

Ethiopia is aiming at 3 billion USD of exports and 600T tonnes of production with tree planting frantically everywhere. Farmers are encouraged because for the first time they see real gains in coffee production. THIS BRINGS GOOD THINGS: Eucalyptus is being uprooted. For the ones that know me, this makes me extremely happy.. 

Local prices of REJECT were similar to the sales of export quality locally. 

2026 is starting with fascinating news that will reshape our coffee world as we know it:
  • KDP and JDE Peet's US$16bn mega-merger 
  • Luckin is reportedly considering a bid for Blue Bottle
  • Coca-Cola wants to sell Costa Coffee.
  • EUDR has been delayed hopefully indefinitely
  • Brazil weather is improving and so coffee prices have been stabilizing. Everywhere else in the world except Ethiopia.
We must understand that this stems from the experience of last year when farmers rushed to capitalize on the gains they could get. In 2026, coffee prices in the South started at 150 Birr per Kg of red cherry and now at Sidamo Kokose and Bombe prices have reached even 340 Birr p. Kg of red cherry.

The liquidity needed to buy coffee is 3 times as high as last year, sometimes even 4 times. So many of the washing stations and exporters are struggling with the lack of liquidity offered by the banks. 

Our National Bank of Ethiopia has reported losses. Now banks are under strict scrutiny with very stringent laws, additional paper work and requirements. Apparently we have lost 444 billion birr. At least this is not only exporters loosing money but also our Government!!!!

Our digitalizing economy and regularisation of laws imposes new rules and regulations on a daily basis on both export and import. Hence we are facing not only huge penalties in import but also huge delays in clearing anything and huge taxes on all items.  Every process is delayed.

You can think all the above is very good and it is, but it comes at importune times putting a lot of strain on our movements and our facilities.

Coffee harvest in the West, Limu, Djimmah etc. is now over, and in Sheka (location of Moplaco's farm) we have a few days of cherry collection till the harvest is finally over. Flowering has started, which is very strange. Unless the last beans are collected, the flowering will abort and the new crop will be impaired.

In the South, in the highlands we have some 3 weeks of harvest left till coffee harvesting is fully over.
In Sidamo, Bombe, and Shantawene we are now seeing prices never seen before, Guji Kercha, and Uraga are underway with more regular prices but with a huge competition underway from some select exporters and in Gedeb the same.

In Yirgachefe and Kochere harvest is now almost over with some pockets of harvest still remaining.

Average prices requested are around 500 US cents/lb and the Coffee and Tea Authority has imposed significantly high prices as a minimum. The government is expecting high profits from coffee imitating past results. 2026 is a year in which exporters must be careful or there will be a lot of tears shed given the high purchase prices in the local side and the dropping NYC.

People will focus again on the commercial lots of Djimmah and Sidamo Gr-4 and Gr-5.

EUDR drove many people to the edge and the only region not focusing on this has been Harar as it is mainly exported to the Middle East. Crop is significantly lower and is challenging to reach the quality needed.

Container availability seems to be resolved since last year finding a container that was acceptable. However, finding one that was clean and with no holes was challenging.

Luckin Coffee not only contemplates buying Blue Bottle, but has a very lively presence in the market and in Ethiopia now, buying Guji coffee aggressively.

Ethiopian Drama never sees an end and each time we have more creative stories to share. This year's drama is the GOLD RUSH. We are now officialy the EL DORADO of Africa, with literally anyone digging to find Gold Nuggets. Artisanal Mining is booming. If we at Moplaco could afford a Caterpillar excavator, we would be digging too.

In terms of Moplaco:
On each station we will be producing about 2 containers of coffee, each comprised of select microlots of very good quality. Coffee quality is very good this year across the board.

In Sheka we have produced about 3 full containers of special lots, focusing on Honey process that was our best coffee last year with excellent feedback.

We will be buying mixed lots from the West, and this year coffee from Anderacha and Kaffa show excellent potential.

Least but not LAST:
Foreign Banks are entering the market slowly but surely and now Carefour will finally start operations in Ethiopia. Finally I will not have to carry bags full of things from Europe like a wandering gypsy.

For the ones that have LOST LOVED ones, I wish you all a recovery from sadness and optimism for the future.

For the ones that the year has entered optimistically, I wish a continuation.

Heleanna Georgalis